February 22, 2024
Funded status
In the third quarter of 2024, the average funded status improved to 135.0% from 131.1% in the previous quarter, driven by increased growth in assets as they continued to outpace liabilities, which resulted in a healthier funded status. The current average funded status is significantly higher than it was in December 2020.
Asset mix
The average asset mix represents a combination of growth, hedging, and diversifying assets—each playing a unique role in the functioning of the pension portfolio. The average asset combinations shown below imply an interest-rate hedge ratio of 53.5% relative to the interest-rate exposure of the average liabilities.
Outlook
The U.S. Federal Reserve has definitively shifted from its sole focus on inflation to also supporting full employment. This clearer policy path could result in a more synchronous global easing cycle as a weaker U.S. dollar prompts rate cuts from central banks—particularly in emerging markets—that have been somewhat constrained from easing by recent U.S. dollar strength.
Market overview
Canadian bonds posted strong returns in the third quarter. Economic data continued to show a slowing Canadian economy with weaker consumer spending, the highest unemployment rate in three years, and signs of a slowdown in the housing market. On the positive side, this economic weakness led to a further deceleration in the year-over-year inflation rate, which fell to its lowest level since February 2021. In response, the Bank of Canada lowered short-term interest rates twice during the quarter. The two rate cuts dropped the bank’s benchmark interest rate to 4.25%, a level last seen in January 2023.
In this environment, Canadian bond yields declined sharply across the board in the third quarter. Short-term bond yields fell the most, reflecting the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts, while longer-term bond yields declined to a lesser extent. On a sector basis, high-yield bonds generated the best returns, while the financials and the securitized sectors underperformed slightly.
Canada’s stock market produced a double-digit gain and outperformed its developed-market peers in the third quarter. Economic growth remained sluggish with initial data indicating that third-quarter GDP would likely miss estimates. This development was actually favorable for the market since it raised the odds that the Bank of Canada would enact a half-point interest-rate cut at its October meeting. The financials sector, which makes up nearly one-third of Canada’s total market capitalization, performed particularly well on expectations of a steepening yield curve. Mining stocks, which benefited from China’s announcement that it would provide significant stimulus to its economy, also contributed to the rally. Together, these factors helped the S&P/TSX Composite Index surpass the 24,000 level for the first time and close just short of a record high.
The world’s equity markets registered impressive gains in the third quarter. Stocks were well supported by the backdrop of positive growth and continued interest-rate cuts by major central banks, which raised hopes that the world economy was poised for a soft landing despite a long stretch of restrictive monetary conditions. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) joined its global peers in loosening policy by enacting a half-point rate cut in September, a move that provided a meaningful boost to investor sentiment. Stocks were also propelled by China’s announcement late in the quarter that it would provide substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus in an effort to prop up its economy and markets. Together, these factors helped major world indexes finish September at or near all-time highs.
Canada yield curve (%)
Source: Bank of Canada, Manulife Investment Management, as of June 30, 2024.
November 2024
Latest asset allocation views
Global markets enter uncharted territory after developed-market central banks break with historical trends to cut interest rates before the U.S. Federal Reserve. Global growth desynchronization will test market resilience while unlocking new investment opportunities.
The solvency funded status of an average defined benefit pension plan1
In the third quarter of 2024, the average funded status improved to 135.0% from 131.1% in the previous quarter, driven by increased growth in assets as they continued to outpace liabilities, resulting in a healthier funded status. The current average funded status is significantly higher than it was in December 2020.
Funded status of the average defined benefit pension plan in Canada
Performance and average asset mix of an average defined benefit pension plan1
The average asset mix represents a combination of growth, hedging, and diversifying assets—each playing a unique role in the functioning of the pension portfolio. The average asset mix shown implies an interest-rate hedge ratio of 53.5% relative to the interest-rate exposure of the average liabilities.2
Based on Manulife’s capital market assumptions, the average asset mix implies an expected return of 6.16%. Based on Manulife’s modeling and stress testing, there's a 95.00% probability that losses relative to liabilities will be less than 14.38%.
Portfolio statistics
53.5%
Interest-rate hedge ratio
6.16%
Expected return
-12.84%
Net risk (95% VaR)
Source: Moody’s Analytics Pfaroe 2024, as of September 30, 2024.
Performance¹ and asset mix of an average defined benefit pension plan in Canada
Asset class |
Benchmark |
Weight |
Role |
Q3 2024 return |
YTD return |
Global equities |
MSCI ACWI Index |
30% |
Growth |
5.4% |
22.0% |
Canadian equities |
S&P/TSX Composite Index |
10% |
Growth |
10.5% |
12.5% |
Canadian long-term fixed income |
FTSE LT Canada Corporate Bond Index |
20% |
Hedging |
5.7% |
2.2% |
Canadian core fixed income |
FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index |
20% |
Hedging |
4.7% |
4.3% |
Real estate |
S&P Global Property Index |
10% |
Diversifying |
23.2% |
14.9% |
Infrastructure |
S&P Global Infrastructure Index |
10% |
Diversifying |
12.0% |
20.9% |
Risk analysis of an average defined benefit pension plan
Equity risk represents a large component of the risk exposure of defined benefit pension plans; therefore, a drastic downward move in equity prices has the potential to reduce a substantial portion of the surplus of the average Canadian defined benefit pension plan. A decrease in interest rates also has the potential to negatively affect any surplus, as it would lead to an increase in the present value of liabilities.
Scenario analysis—average Canadian defined benefit pension plan
Scenario |
Surplus/deficit |
Change in surplus |
Base |
35.01% |
— |
Interest rates, 1% decrease |
29.18% |
-5.83% |
Interest rates, 1% increase |
39.28% |
4.27% |
Credit spread, 1% decrease |
34.28% |
-0.74% |
Credit spread, 1% increase |
35.01% |
0.00% |
Equity prices, 20% decrease |
24.23% |
-10.78% |
Sources of relative risk for the average defined benefit pension plan
In the average defined benefit pension plan, a fair amount of risk is diversified away. Along with significant equity risk, the average pension plan also has exposure to interest-rate, credit, and property risks.
Source: Moody’s Analytics PFaroe, as of June 30, 2024. VaR refers to value at risk.
Solvency funded ratio of an average defined benefit pension plan
We examined the solvency funded ratio of an average defined benefit pension plan across various scenarios, ranging from best case to worst case, forecast all the way out to 2034.
Based on our scenario analysis, the median forecast solvency funded ratio for an average defined benefit pension plan will be 137.4% in September 2025 and 135.2% in September 2034.
Source: Manulife Investment Management, as of June 30, 2024.
Asset and liability assumptions
Asset assumptions
The asset allocation of the Pension barometer is loosely based on the Canadian defined benefit plan asset mix for 2021 provided by Coalition Greenwich in its January 2022 edition of Market Trends & Competitive Positioning, "2021 Canadian Institutional Investor Research."
The funded status Pension barometer assumes the following asset allocation at the start date (December 31, 2020):
- Canadian core fixed income: 20% (FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index)
- Canadian long core fixed income: 20% (FTSE Canada Long Term Bond Index)
- Canadian all cap: 10% (MSCI Canada Index)
- Global AC large cap: 30% (MSCI ACWI Large Cap Index)
- Infrastructure: 10% (S&P Global Infrastructure Index)
- Real: 10% (iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index)
The scenario analysis, simulations, and projections (VaR, funded status scenarios, surplus analysis, risk metrics) assume the below asset allocation at the start date (December 21, 2020):
- Canadian core fixed income: 20% (FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index)
- Canadian long core fixed income: 20% (FTSE Canada Long Term Bond Index)
- Canadian all cap: 10% (MSCI Canada Index)
- Global AC large cap: 30% (MSCI ACWI Large Cap Index)
- Infrastructure: 10% (S&P Global Infrastructure Index)
- Real estate: 10% (iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index)
Both asset allocation scenarios assume monthly rebalancing.
Liability assumptions
The liability curve data is provided by PFaroe (Moody’s).
- Discount curve: CUSIP V39062 plus a parameter spread based on the liability duration
- Preretirement and postretirement discount curve: Unindexed commuted value
The liability cash flows are produced by Manulife and are modeled off the cash flows from the Manulife IM Mid-Term Liability Provincial Bond Benchmark. The Manulife IM Mid-Term Liability Provincial Bond Benchmark is a notional portfolio of fixed-income securities drawn from constituents of the FTSE Canada Universe Provincial Bond Index and the FTSE Canada Provincial Strip Bond Index, and is constructed to hedge the target cash flow structure of the liabilities. The cash flow structure of the liabilities was established by Manulife IM using a proprietary methodology and representing an average Canadian pension plan that has 25% of liabilities from active members and 75% as retired members, with demographic and labour distribution data sourced from Statistics Canada.
The liabilities measured in the Pension barometer are based on the Canadian federal solvency valuation methodology.
Outlook
The Fed has definitively shifted from a sole focus on inflation to also supporting full employment. As such, with jobs and economic growth cooling, we expect a faster pace of easing than the Fed has telegraphed. We foresee a Fed funds rate of 4.25% at the end of 2024 and 3.00% at the close of 2025.
This clearer policy path could result in a more synchronous global easing cycle as a weaker U.S. dollar prompts rate cuts from central banks—particularly in emerging markets—that have been somewhat constrained from easing by recent U.S. dollar strength.
That said, specific factors are still at play for many policymakers. The European Central Bank and Bank of England are contending with stubborn inflation, while the Bank of Canada faces sluggish domestic demand and the possibility of weak inflation. The Bank of Japan has twice raised rates this year, and Brazil’s central bank has increased rates due to inflation. Among other emerging markets, Bank Indonesia has begun cutting rates as the rupiah stabilizes against the U.S. dollar.
1 Asset mix assumptions. 2 Liability assumptions.
Canada 2024 outlook
Mounting challenges with limited upside
Whether it comes from retreating consumers, stress in the housing sector, limited business investment, or simply a weak global environment, 2024 may present many challenges for the Canadian economy.
Authors
Vishal Mansukhani, CFA
Global Multi-Asset Client Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Solutions Team
Manulife Investment Management
Howard Chao, FSA, FCIA, CFA
Head of Investment Strategy, Liability-Driven Investments, Multi-Asset Solutions Team
Manulife Investment Management
Alec Fowler
Investment Analyst, Liability-Driven Investments, Multi-Asset Solutions Team
Manulife Investment Management
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