Global Macro Outlook—a year of two halves

Q1 | 2021

Global Macro Outlook—a year of two halves

Working through the economic stall out

We find ourselves kicking off 2021 not so much in style, but in the middle of a stall out—the second stage of our three-phase recovery framework in which the economic rebound loses momentum and weakness seeps back in.

Indeed, we believe that the first half of 2021 will be challenging, particularly for developed markets. While we don’t expect to see a double-dip recession, when confronted by a raft of soft economic data that’s expected to come our way over the next few months, it’s likely that it could feel as if we’re heading toward one.

Thankfully, we expect this period of economic weakness is likely to be short-lived. More than likely, economic prospects will improve as efforts to roll out the various COVID-19 vaccines gather pace—a development that’ll enable the gradual return to a business-as-usual environment, setting the scene for a strong end to the year.  

Defining macroeconomic features by quarter
Table listing the key defining macroeconomic themes for each quarter – in the first quarter, we expect to see periodic surges in COVID-19 infections, weak and increasingly soft economic data, and growing speculation of a double-dip recession. In the second quarter, inflation levels could rise as a result of base effects while segments of the labor market remain weak. In the third quarter, the impact of the vaccine rollout begins to emerge, leading to stronger economic data, while market speculation about possible rate normalization gathers pace. In the fourth quarter, although some economic distortions will likely persist, we’ll begin to see first hints of what a new normal could look like in a post-COVID-19 environment.
Source: Manulife Investment Management, as of December 22, 2020.

That said, the journey back to normal isn’t likely to be linear. Different economies are likely to transition out of the recessionary environment at different times. The K-shaped nature of this recovery, where the manufacturing sector returns to growth before the services sector, will likely dictate which economies will return to growth first.

Crucially, policy support will remain ample throughout the year, both in terms of accommodative monetary policies and enhanced fiscal budgets. These sources of support should, in all likelihood, keep recessionary pressures at bay.

Against this backdrop, we present the latest edition of Global Macro Outlook, in which we identify the key macroeconomic themes we believe will shape the financial markets in the year ahead.

A widespread health crisis such as a global pandemic could cause substantial market volatility, exchange trading suspensions and closures, and affect portfolio performance. For example, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in significant disruptions to global business activity. The impact of a health crisis and other epidemics and pandemics that may arise in the future, could affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the present time. A health crisis may exacerbate other preexisting political, social, and economic risks. Any such impact could adversely affect the portfolio’s performance, resulting in losses to your investment

Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. These risks are magnified for investments made in emerging markets. Currency risk is the risk that fluctuations in exchange rates may adversely affect the value of a portfolio’s investments.

The information provided does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person. You should consider the suitability of any type of investment for your circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

This material, intended for the exclusive use by the recipients who are allowable to receive this document under the applicable laws and regulations of the relevant jurisdictions, was produced by, and the opinions expressed are those of, Manulife Investment Management as of the date of this publication and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. The information and/or analysis contained in this material has been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but Manulife Investment Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness, or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of the information and/or analysis contained. The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and is only as current as of the date indicated. The information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Manulife Investment Management disclaims any responsibility to update such information.

Neither Manulife Investment Management or its affiliates, nor any of their directors, officers, or employees shall assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained herein. All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment, or legal advice. Clients should seek professional advice for their particular situation. Neither Manulife, Manulife Investment Management, nor any of their affiliates or representatives is providing tax, investment, or legal advice. This material was prepared solely for informational purposes, does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer, or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Investment Management to any person to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy, and is no indication of trading intent in any fund or account managed by Manulife Investment Management. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Diversification or asset allocation does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in any market. Unless otherwise specified, all data is sourced from Manulife Investment Management. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Manulife Investment Management

Manulife Investment Management is the global wealth and asset management segment of Manulife Financial Corporation. We draw on more than a century of financial stewardship to partner with clients across our institutional, retail, and retirement businesses globally. Our specialist approach to money management includes the highly differentiated strategies of our fixed-income, specialized equity, multi-asset solutions, and private markets teams, along with access to specialized, unaffiliated asset managers from around the world through our multimanager model. 

These materials have not been reviewed by and are not registered with any securities or other regulatory authority, and may, where appropriate, be distributed by the following Manulife entities in their respective jurisdictions. Additional information about Manulife Investment Management may be found at  manulifeim.com/institutional.

Australia: Hancock Natural Resource Group Australasia Pty Limited, Manulife Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited. Brazil: Hancock Asset Management Brasil Ltda. Canada: Manulife Investment Management Limited, Manulife Investment Management Distributors Inc., Manulife Investment Management (North America) Limited, Manulife Investment Management Private Markets (Canada) Corp. China: Manulife Overseas Investment Fund Management (Shanghai) Limited Company. European Economic Area and United Kingdom: Manulife Investment Management (Europe) Ltd.which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct AuthorityManulife Investment Management (Ireland) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland Hong Kong: Manulife Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited. Indonesia: PT Manulife Aset Manajemen Indonesia. Japan: Manulife Investment Management (Japan) Limited. Malaysia: Manulife Investment Management (M) Berhad (formerly known as Manulife Asset Management Services Berhad) 200801033087 (834424-U). Philippines: Manulife Asset Management and Trust Corporation. Singapore: Manulife Investment Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (Company Registration No. 200709952G). South Korea: Manulife Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited. Switzerland: Manulife IM (Switzerland) LLC. Taiwan: Manulife Investment Management (Taiwan) Co. Ltd. United States: John Hancock Investment Management LLC, Manulife Investment Management (US) LLC, Manulife Investment Management Private Markets (US) LLC, and Hancock Natural Resource Group, Inc. Vietnam: Manulife Investment Fund Management (Vietnam) Company Limited.

Manulife Investment Management, the Stylized M Design, and Manulife Investment Management & Stylized M Design are trademarks of The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company and are used by it, and by its affiliates, under license.

528580

Frances Donald

Frances Donald, 

Global Chief Economist and Strategist, Multi-Asset Solutions Team

Manulife Investment Management

Read bio
Alex Grassino

Alex Grassino, 

Head of Global Macro Strategy, Multi-Asset Solutions

Manulife Investment Management

Read bio
Sue Trinh

Sue Trinh, 

Former Co-Head, Global Macro Strategy, Multi-Asset Solutions

Manulife Investment Management

Read bio
Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT

Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, 

Former Global Macro Strategist, Macroeconomic and Strategy Team, Multi-Asset Solutions Team

Manulife Investment Management

Read bio