Junior credit: rate cuts and improving visibility support investment opportunities

Key takeaways

  • Federal rate cuts, decelerating inflation, and more consistent economic data support a projected uptick in M&A transaction volumes.
  • The flexibility of junior credit solutions will continue to be valued by private equity sponsors.
  • Private loans to core middle market companies can offer higher spreads and stronger protections, resulting in attractive risk-adjusted returns.

 

The private equity deal environment is presenting compelling opportunities for investors in 2025. The buyout market ended 2024 buoyed by a deceleration in inflation, more accommodative credit markets, supportive public equity market valuations, and the decisive outcome of the U.S. presidential election. There remains a significant inventory of long-tenured deals in private equity funds, with U.S. private equity inventory at an all-time high of approximately 11,500 companies,1 suggesting 2025 could be a busy year.

Strong lender appetite has continued to push leverage up and credit spreads tighter, which we expect to support dealmaking potential in 2025 and beyond. While junior credit coupons have contracted by approximately 100 to 150 basis points over the past year, contractual returns remain attractive, and the spread to senior debt is becoming more pronounced.

Spread to maturity for B-rated leveraged loans

A line chart illustrating spread to maturity for B-rated leveraged loans from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Pitchbook, LCD, as of September 13, 2024.

Our view continues to be that private loans to companies in the core middle market, while often requiring more extensive sourcing and due diligence than loans to larger companies, could offer higher spreads and more protection to investors, resulting in attractive risk-adjusted returns. The past 20+ years have seen traditional banks pull back from financing middle market companies. This has opened the door for private lenders to increasingly become the main—and sometimes only—option for middle market borrowers.

Debt/EBITDA ratio of leveraged loans

A bar chart illustrating debt/ebitda ratio of leveraged loans, broken out by first-lien, second lien and other, from 2006 to 2024.
Source: Pitchbook, LCD, as of September 30, 2024.

In general, the preferences of middle market borrowers and private equity sponsors have shifted meaningfully in favor of private lenders. In particular, junior credit lenders can offer unique funding solutions, certainty of execution, and the flexibility that comes from a long-term financing relationship. Additionally, the rise of preferred deals can mean more flexibility to borrower companies, which have used preferred equity to raise capital without adding cash-pay interest.

Although we expect competition to remain fierce from both junior credit and unitranche lenders, we anticipate continued steady and actionable junior capital opportunities. As such, discipline on leverage, pricing, and credit terms will remain paramount.

For investors, middle market private debt offers exposure to a diverse set of borrowers with higher spreads and stronger structural protection versus broadly syndicated loans. We continue to believe the strong contractual returns and upside participation offered by middle market junior credit offer attractive risk-adjusted returns for limited partners.

1 Pitchbook, as of September 30, 2024

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Matt Szwarc

Matt Szwarc, 

Managing Director, Head of Junior Credit

Manulife Investment Management

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Seth Kulman

Seth Kulman, 

Managing Director, Private Equity & Credit

Manulife Investment Management

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