Secondaries: a booming market moves into high gear in 2025

Key takeaways

  • 2024 was a record year for secondaries, including new highs for both the LP- and GP-led segments of the secondary market.
  • GP-led secondaries continue to be a critical liquidity solution for both GPs and LPs amid another year of muted sponsor-backed company M&A and IPO exits.
  • Semi-liquid vehicles and registered 40 Act funds have arrived in the secondary market in force, and their success will likely affect secondary pricing.
  • We expect that 2025 will see continued growth in market volume, depth, and breadth.

 

Last year will go down as a watershed year for the secondary market, delivering record volume as the asset class continued to move into the mainstream. What began as a series of trades in the late 1980s and early 1990s has matured into a substantial asset management business that some believe will hit annual volume north of $400 billion by 2030.1

As 2025 gets under way, we’d like to offer four observations about the current secondary market.

1 A record-setting 2024 could be followed by an even stronger 2025

Secondary transaction volume in 2024 set a new record, with estimates ranging from $130 billion to $170 billion, including new highs for both the limited partner (LP) and general partner (GP) led segments of the secondary market. Year-to-date volume of $110 billion to $115 billion has already surpassed the $114 billion recorded last year, with Q4 activity still to be finalized.2 The new year begins with a strong backlog of transactions, amplified by macro trends and increasing pressure for liquidity.

Secondaries reach record volume in 2024

A bar chart illustrating global secondary market transaction volume in billions from 2013 to HI2024, broken out by LP-led transactions, GP-led transactions and percentage of GP-led deals.
Source: Evercore H1 2024 Secondary Market Review, as of July 2024.

2 GP-led secondaries as a key liquidity solution in 2024, continuing in 2025

Residual COVID-19 impacts, stubbornly high inflation, and high interest rates have all put downward pressure on company performance and valuations. The result was a second year of muted sponsor-backed company merger-and-acquisition (M&A) and initial public offering (IPO) exits, with higher usage of continuation vehicles as a viable path to achieving critical liquidity needs for both GPs and LPs. With the U.S. presidential election uncertainty out of the way, the transaction flywheel is expected to pick up speed as 2025 advances.

Private equity net cash flows

A bar chart illustrating private equity net cash flows in billions from 2000 to 2023.
Source: Pitchbook, as of October 31, 2023.

3 Secondary strategies achieved notable fund-raising success in 2024

The secondary market was again one of the brightest spots in a dim overall fund-raising environment last year. Secondary franchises had significant success in getting commitments from institutional and, increasingly, high-net-worth investors. In fact, several franchises have or are close to announcing final closings, with fund sizes shattering not only secondary fund records, but also some of the largest fund closing across all strategies.

4 Semi-liquid vehicles and ’40 Act funds enter the secondary market in force

Semi-liquid vehicles and registered '40 Act funds have arrived in the secondary market with ample capital. These funds are typically sponsored by large asset managers and targeted at high-net-worth investors through registered investment advisers, broker-dealers, and private banks. Their fund-raising success is likely to affect pricing in the secondary market, particularly strategies focused on purchasing LP interests.

In conclusion, 2024 was a strong year for the secondary market. However, with rates coming down, values moving up, and more capital in formation, the year ahead sets up to be even more dynamic.

 

1  Preqin database, assets under management by date, as of 22 January 2024, Greenhill Global Secondary Market Trends & Outlook, January 2020, Evercore FY 2023 Secondary Market Survey Results Highlights, January 2024. 2  PJT Park Hill Q3 2024 Secondary Market Insight; PJT Park Hill Secondary Investor Roadmap Series H1 2024.

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Jeff Hammer

Jeff Hammer, 

Senior Managing Director, Global Co-Head of Secondaries

Manulife Investment Management

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Paul Sanabria

Paul Sanabria, 

Senior Managing Director, Global Co-Head of Secondaries

Manulife Investment Management

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