Farmland market indicators

A quarterly update enabling investors to access our latest insight into global market movements at a glance

2023 year-end review: optimism remains, even as near-term headwinds build up

Against a backdrop of increased global output and dissipating demand shocks, row crop prices have eased from recent highs, while farmland appreciation held up in 2023. Conversely, tree nut prices closed the year with mixed performance.

Corn production increased to close out 2023

Global corn production is estimated to have set a new record in marketing year (MY) 2023 on rebounding global production.

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Soybean production expanded in 2023

Global soybean production is estimated to have increased 5% in MY 2023, with a bumper crop in Argentina following historic droughts that offset declines in the United States and Brazil.

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U.S. dollar movement mixed

The U.S. dollar closed the year mixed against most major currencies.

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Corn exports moved higher in Q4, despite a year-over-year decline

Brazil’s corn export growth throughout 2023 was more than offset by declines in exports from the United States.

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Soybean exports expanded throughout 2023

Strong growth in soybean exports from Brazil offset declines in the United States.

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Tree nut prices were flat to up in Q4

Almond prices increased in Q4, while pistachio and walnut prices held flat relative to the previous quarter.

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Row crops continued to generate healthy annual returns

NCREIF Farmland Property Index row crop properties registered their third-best-performing year in a decade. 

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*MY refers to marketing year. Marketing year is the 12-month period after harvest that covers the services involved in moving an agricultural product from the farm to the consumer.

Production estimates

Global corn production reached a record high in MY 2023

Annual corn production estimates (million metric tons)

  • Global corn production is estimated to have set a new record in MY 2023, as production woes in Brazil were more than offset by increased outputs in the United States, China, and Argentina.
  • In MY 2023, U.S. corn production is estimated up 10% to 390 million metric tons (MMTs) on more acreage and better yield.
  • Brazil production in MY 2023 (March 2024–February 2025) is expected to decrease nearly 10% to 124 MMT on lower acreage and yield.
Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), as of March 15, 2024. Marketing year (MY) 2023 is estimated. Years are in MY. MY 2023 for corn is from September 2023 to August 2024 for the United States, from October 2023 to September 2024 for China, and from March 2024 to February 2025 in Argentina and Brazil. Corn production data and forecasts are updated monthly by the USDA WASDE.

Global soybean production expansion continued in MY 2023

Annual soybean production estimates (million metric tons)

  • MY 2023 global soybean production is estimated to increase for the second straight year, up 5% to nearly 400 MMTs.
  • A bumper crop in Argentina is expected, up 100% in MY 2023 to 50 MMTs, with return-to-normal weather and higher planted acreage.
  • Both U.S. (–2.5%) and Brazil (–4.3%) productions are estimated down in MY 2023.
Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), as of March 14 2024. Marketing year (MY) 2023 is estimated. Years are in MY. MY 2023 for soybeans is from September 2023 to August 2024 for the United State and from February 2024 to January 2025 in Argentina and Brazil. Soybean production data and forecasts are updated monthly by the USDA WASDE.

Exchange rates

The USD registered mixed performance against major global currencies in 2023

Quarterly exchange rates between USD and key agricultural currencies (indexed to 1 at 2006: Q1)

 

  • The U.S. dollar (USD) closed 2023 depreciating against some competing currencies, down 3 basis points (bps) against the Canadian dollar and 9bps against the Brazilian real.
  • The USD appreciated 78% against the Argentine peso and nearly 20% against the Russian ruble.
Source: Macrobond as of March 15, 2024. USD refers to U.S. dollars. Exchanges rates are updated on a daily basis by Macrobond Financial AB.

Exports

Corn exports slowed in 2023 despite quarter-over-quarter increases in H2 2023

Four-quarter moving average corn exports, major producers (MMTs)

  • Total corn exports for the United States, Brazil, and Argentina declined 3% (4 MMTs) in calendar year 2023, despite consecutive increases seen in Q3 and Q4.
  • U.S. corn exports at 11.4 MMTs in Q4 2023 were 21% lower than a year ago.
  • Brazil’s exports at 14.0 MMTs closing out Q4 2023 were 29% higher than a year ago.
  • Argentina, still recovering from drought impacts in MY 2022, saw exports’ moving average in Q4 2023 down 28% year over year.
Source: FAS GATS, Comexstat, Argentina Ministry of Agroindustry, March 15, 2024. Argentina’s agricultural exports are published on a monthly basis by the Argentinian Ministry of Agroindustry. Brazil export data is published on a monthly basis by Comexstat. U.S. exports are published on a monthly basis by the U.S. Census Bureau. Export data is reported on a four-quarter moving average to adjust for seasonality.

Global soybean exports continued to expand throughout 2023

Four-quarter moving average soybean exports, United States and Brazil (MMTs)

  • Global soybean exports reached a record high in Q4 2023, with Brazil’s gains offsetting declines in the United States.
  • On a four-quarter moving average basis, at 12.2 MMT in Q4 2023, U.S. soybean exports closed the year 15% lower than in 2022.
  • Brazil soybean exports at 25.5 MMT in Q4 2023 were up 29% from Q4 2022.
Source: FAS GATS, Comexstat, March 15 2024. Brazil export data is published on a monthly basis by Comexstat. U.S. exports are published on a monthly basis by the U.S. Census Bureau. Export data is reported on a four-quarter moving average to adjust for seasonality.

Crop prices

Row crop prices fell in 2023

Row crop prices (US$ per bushel)

 

  • The price of corn dropped 26% in Q4 2023 to US$4.80 per bushel, compared with a year ago at US$6.52.
  • Soybean prices declined to US$12.93 per bushel in Q4 2023, down 7% from US$13.97 a year ago.
  • Wheat prices posted a 26% year-over-year decline at US$6.77 per bushel from US$9.10 a year ago.
Source: USDA NASS, March 15, 2024. Row crop prices are published on a monthly basis by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Tree nut prices saw mixed performance closing out 2023

Quarterly producer price indexes for almonds, pistachios, and walnuts (January 2018 = 100)

 

  • Q4 2023 almond prices edged up 3% relative to Q3, due to smaller crop size and slower harvest progress in MY 2023.
  • Q4 2023 pistachio prices held flat quarter over quarter and were down 17% relative to a year ago following MY 2023’s record-breaking harvest.
  • Q4 2023 walnut prices were unchanged from the prior quarter, but 7% higher than a year ago, amid the first-ever year-over-year acreage decline.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of March 15, 2024. Tree nut price indexes are represented by subindexes of the Producer Price Index. Prices are indexed, relative to January 2018=100. Price index data is published on a monthly basis by the U.S. Department of Labor and compiled on a monthly basis. Marketing years begin in August for almonds and in September for pistachios and walnuts.

Farmland investment returns

Row crop returns posted healthy quarterly performance

NCREIF row crops total return (%)

  • NCREIF row crop returns reached 3.9% in Q4 2023, making 2023 the third-best-performing year in a decade that saw a 10.21% annual total return.
  • Income returns continued to provide stable returns for investors, while capital appreciation further bolstered total performance.
  • Outlooks for 2024 see challenges and opportunities amid moderating crop prices, while demand for quality farmland assets remains strong.

Source: NCREIF, April 2023. NCREIF Farmland Property Index return data is published on a quarterly basis. NCREIF quarterly total row crops returns are aggregated to form the total return for the year. The total return as seen on the bar chart may not equal the annual total return as reported by NCREIF because the NCREIF annual return is calculated by multiplying, instead of adding, quarterly returns together.

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