Farmland market indicators

A quarterly update enabling investors to access our latest insight into global market movements at a glance

Q2 2024 review: markets brace for new crop years to start

Row crop prices continued to moderate throughout Q2 2024 on increasing crop availability projected for the upcoming marketing year. Tree nut prices improved quarter over quarter. Investment returns continued to post positive results in Q2.

U.S. corn production is projected to slide lower in 2024

U.S. corn production for marketing year (MY) 2024 is projected to decline less than 2%. Year-over-year (YoY) increases in production from Brazil and China are projected to nearly offset the declines in United States.

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Global soybean production is forecast to grow in 2024

Global soybean production is projected to increase 6% in MY 2024, on higher output from the United States., Brazil, and Argentina.

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U.S. dollar closed Q2 mixed

The U.S. dollar (USD) held steady in general in Q2 2024 on robust GDP growth, safe-haven demand, and interest-rate differentials.

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U.S. corn exports continued to move higher in Q2

U.S. corn exports increased 24% in Q2 2024 relative to Q2 2023, on the tail of a four-quarter streak.

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U.S. soybean exports rebounded slightly in Q2 

U.S. soybean exports increased 9% in Q2 2024 relative to Q2 2023, but are down 19% on a four-quarter trailing average basis. 

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U.S. tree nut exports rebounded slightly in Q2

Prices of exported almond and pistachio moved up in Q2 relative to Q1 primarily driven by strong export demand throughout the marketing year.

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Row crop investment returns remained positive in Q2

Total returns on NCREIF row crop properties, at 1.45%, remained positive in Q2. 

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MY refers to marketing year. Marketing year is the 12-month period after harvest that covers the services involved in moving an agricultural product from the farm to the consumer.

Production estimates

 

Global corn production projected to hold steady in MY 2024

Annual corn production estimates (million metric tons)

A bar chart displays annual corn production estimates in million metric tonnes between 2018 and Q2 2024.
  • Global corn production in MY 2024 is projected to remain virtually unchanged from its peak production in MY 2023, with improved production in Brazil (+4.1%) and China (+1.1%) more than offset by reduced outputs in the the United States (-1.6%), and Argentina (-1.9%).
  • In MY 2024, U.S. corn production is estimated to fall to 384 million metric tons (MMTs) due to declines in harvested area (-5.4%) more than offsetting yield gain (4.1%).
  • Brazil production in MY 2024 (March 2025 to February 2026) is expected to increase 4.1% to 127 MMT on higher acreage and yield.
Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), as of July 31, 2024. MY2024 is projected. MY2023 is estimated. Years are marketing years. MY2024 for corn is from September 2024 to August 2025 for the United States, from October 2024 to September 2025 for China and from March 2025 to February 2026 in Argentina and Brazil. Corn production data and forecasts are updated monthly by the USDA WASDE.

Global soybean production to reach record level in MY 2024

Annual soybean production estimates (million metric tons)

A bar chart shows annual soybean production estimates (in million metric tons) for the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and the rest of the world, between 2018 and 2024.
  • MY 2024 global soybean production is projected to increase for the third straight year, up 6.7% to nearly 422 MMTs.
  • Growth in the United States (+6.5%) and Brazil (+10.5%) are the main drivers behind the global production increase.
  • The MY2024 U.S. soybean crop is projected to reach 121 MMTs, up 7.4 MMTs from a year ago on more acreage and higher yield.
  • Brazil is projected to have a record-breaking soybean harvest in MY2024 (Feb 2025—January 2026) at 169 MMTs.
Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), as of July 31, 2024. MY2024 is projected. MY2023 is estimated. Years are marketing years. MY 2024 for soybeans is from September 2024 to August 2025 for the United States, from February 2025 to January 2026 in Argentina and Brazil. Soybean production data and forecasts are updated monthly by the USDA WASDE.

Exchange rates

  

Strong U.S. dollar held steady against major global currencies in Q2 2024

Quarterly exchange rates between USD and key agricultural currencies (Indexed to 1 at 2006: Q1)

A line chart compares the performance of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies between 2006 and Q2 2024, including those of Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, Russia, the Eurozone, and China.
  • The U.S. dollar maintained its strength during the quarter and closed Q2 2024 appreciating slightly against most competing currencies, up 1.0% on the Canadian dollar, 0.7% on the Euro, 0.6% on the Chinese yuan, and 9.6% on Brazil real from Q1 2024.
  • The U.S. dollar depreciated 2.5% against Australian dollar and 7.3% against the Russian ruble from Q1 2024.

Source: Macrobond as of July 31, 2024

Note: Exchanges rates are updated on a daily basis by Macrobond Financial AB.

Exports

Corn exports continued to increase in Q2 2024

Four-quarter moving average corn exports, major producers (MMTs).

A bar chart shows U.S. corn exports in million metric tonnes between Q2 2019 and Q2 2024 from the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina.
  • U.S. corn exports at 18.6 MMTs in Q2 2024 were 24% higher than Q2 2023.
  • Argentina’s corn exports at 10.3 MMTs in Q2 2024 were up 38% versus Q1 2024 and 86% higher than Q2 2023 which was impacted by drought.
  • Brazil’s exports in Q2 2024 were 13.4 MMTs, 29% lower than in Q2 2023, due to lower crop availability affectedby unfavorable weather and climate conditions.

Sources: FAS GATS, Comexstat, and Argentina Ministry of Agroindustry, July 31, 2024.

Note: Argentina’s agricultural exports are published on a monthly basis by the Argentinian Ministry of Agroindustry. Brazil exportn data is published on a monthly basis by Comexstat. U.S. exports are published on a monthly basis by the U.S. Census Bureau. Export data is reported on a four-quarter moving average to adjust for seasonality.

Global soybean exports softened in Q2 2024

Four-quarter moving average soybean exports, United States and Brazil (MMTs)

A bar chart shows four-quarter moving average soybean exports in million metric tonnes for the United States and Brazil between Q2 2019 to Q2 2024.
  • Brazil exported 42.1 MMTs of soybeans in Q2 2024, down 1.6 MMTs from Q2 2023, due to a smaller crop in MY2023 (March 2024 to February 2025) relative to the previous year.
  • Brazil’s YoY decreases more than offset the 0.4 MMTs in increases in the U.S. soybean exports in Q2 2024 from Q2 2023.

Sources: FAS GATS and Comexstat, July 31, 2024.

Note: Brazil export data is published on a monthly basis by Comexstat. U.S. exports are published on a monthly basis by the U.S. Census Bureau. Export data is reported on a four-quarter moving average to adjust for seasonality.

Crop prices

Row crop price moderation continued in Q2 2024

Row crop prices (USD per bushel)

A line chart compares the price of soybeans, wheat, and corn between Q2 2019 and Q2 2024,
  • The price of corn held relatively steady in Q2 2024 compared with Q1, down just 0.6% to $4.46 per bushel, but was down 32.2% compared with Q2 2023.
  • Soybean price declines continued in Q2 2024, falling to $11.83 per bushel, down 18.4% from Q2 2023 and down 3% from the previous quarter.
  • Wheat prices posted a 25.4% YoY decline in Q2, reaching $5.98 per bushel from $8.02 in Q2 2023, registering the third consecutive quarter with price declines greater than 25%.
Source: USDA NASS, July 31, 2024. Row crop prices are published on a monthly basis by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Tree nut prices improved in Q2 2024

Quarterly blended export prices for almonds and pistachios (in-shell and shelled, weight-averaged, USD per pound)

A line chart displays the dollar prices of pistachios and almonds between Q2 2018 and Q2 2024.
  • Exported almond prices moved up in Q2 2024 by 1 cent per pound from Q1, up 1.6% YoY.
    • Prices of shelled almonds, which account for two-thirds of export volume, increased 6.4% YoY, more than offsetting the 9.7% YoY decline of in-shell prices.
  • Exported pistachio prices increased 4.1% in Q2 2024 from Q1, but were down 3.4% YoY.
    • On a YoY basis prices of in-shell pistachios, which account for 95% of pistachio exported volume, were down 6.6%, more than offsetting the 10.2% increase for shelled pistachios.
Sources: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agricultural Trade System. Prices are calculated based on total value and volume of shelled and in-shell exports and Marketing years tart in August for almonds and September for pistachios and walnuts

Farmland investment returns

Row crop returns posted positive return in Q2 2024

NCREIF row crops total return (%)

A bar chart displays NCREIF row crops total return prices in Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4.
  • NCREIF row crop returns reached 1.45% in Q2 2024, slightly above the average Q2 return of 1.43% during the previous decade.
  • Income returns for NCREIF row cropland properties in Q2 2024 at 0.73% were on par with Q1 2024, continuing to provide stable returns for investors.
  • Row crop market value appreciated 0.72% in Q2 2024, showing a moderating trend, which is likely to continue in the second half of 2024 amid expectations of continued softening of crop prices in the near term.
Source: NCREIF, July 2024. NCREIF Farmland return data is published on a quarterly basis. NCREIF quarterly total row crops returns are aggregated to form the total return for the year. The total return as seen on the bar chart may not equal the annual total return as reported by NCREIF, because the NCREIF annual return is calculated by multiplying instead of adding quarterly returns together.

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