Timberland market indicators

We compile a quarterly update that enables investors to access our latest insight into global market movements at a glance.

Q2 2024 review: timber markets reflect reduced mill consumption and weak forest product prices 

Persistently weak demand and prices for manufactured wood products has continued to weigh on timber markets. The challenging economic environment is tempering residential construction and repair and remodeling activity as high inflation and interest rates negatively affect builders and consumers across multiple global wood producing regions. North American lumber production has declined amid a flurry of announced mill closures as lumber prices fall below production costs for some high-cost producers. Expectations for a future rebound in timber demand continues to provide support for timberland values.  

U.S. new home construction fell in Q2 2024, reducing lumber consumption and prices 

U.S. housing starts at 1.35 million units (SAAR) during the quarter were down 4% from last quarter and 7% below a year ago. Softwood lumber prices fell 5% from last quarter, and were down 6%  from one year ago.      

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Australian new home construction approvals improved modestly in Q2 2024, while softwood lumber and log prices move sideways

Dwelling approvals improved 4% during Q2, to 40,000 units (seasonally adjusted) as softwood lumber and log prices hold near prior elevated levels.

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Prices for timber reflected weakness in residential construction demand

Softwood timber prices in U.S. domestic markets slide lower, while New Zealand softwood log export prices corrected sharply downward from recent peaks.  

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U.S. timberland cash yields declined as timber prices and harvest volumes fall, while timberland values held

Reduced demand from forest products producers weighed on timberland harvest volumes and log prices, while timberland values held, resulting in second-quarter cash yields dropping to lows experienced at the onset of the pandemic in 2020. 

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Private timberland values in the U.S. South ticked higher, while publicly traded timberland values moved lower1

U.S. timberland values in the South rose during the second quarter for properties under private institutional ownership and moved ahead of publicly traded REIT ownership.

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1 Publicly listed ownerships (as measured by MIMTA’s timber enterprise value per Southern equivalent acre (TEA/SEA))

Housing construction

  

U.S. housing starts moved lower and softwood lumber prices reach unsustainably low levels

A chart compares the price of Australian softwood lumber and timber with multifamily and single family dwelling unit approvals.
  • U.S. housing starts averaged 1.35 million units (SAAR) during the second quarter, down 4% from last quarter and 7% below a year ago.
  • While total housing starts fell for the third consecutive quarter, single family starts registered a quarterly average of 1.01 million units (SAAR) in the second quarter and have now been above 1 million units for seven consecutive months.
  • Multifamily housing starts continued to trend lower, averaging 342,000 (SAAR) during the quarter, well off the recent peak of over 600,000 units (SAAR) reached in mid-2022.
  • The Random Lengths Framing Lumber Index trended lower in 2Q, giving back last quarter’s gains to an average of $384/MBF for the quarter.  Both softwood and hardwood lumber prices in North America have fallen to breakeven or below levels for some higher cost producers, forcing temporary mill curtailments in some regions, along with multiple mills announcing permanent closures. To date in 2024, nearly 2 billion board feet of lumber capacity has indefinitely or permanently closed.2
2 Fastmarkets RISI as of August 19 2024

 

Australia housing approvals moved modestly higher, while lumber and log prices hold

A chart compares the regional softwood sawtimber stumpage prices of the U.S. Pacific Northwest (domestic), U.S. South, and New Zealand export between 2008 and Q2 2024.
  • Australia dwelling approvals increased 4% from the prior quarter, with single family approvals rising 6%, and multifamily approvals remaining near prior quarter levels.
  • Despite increased population growth boosting the need for housing, high home prices, mortgage rates, and continued elevated inflation are affecting affordability and slowing new home demand.
  • Softwood structural lumber prices remained flat near historic highs in the second quarter of 2024.
  • Softwood stumpage prices, available on a semiannual basis, increased 5% in the latter half of 2023 compared to the first half, reflective of tight log supply despite lower end market demand.

Timber prices

  

Global softwood timber prices moved lower on reduced demand

A chart compares the regional softwood sawtimber stumpage prices of the U.S. Pacific Northwest (domestic), U.S. South, and New Zealand export between 2008 and Q2 2024.
  • U.S. Pacific Northwest stumpage prices moved lower again during Q2, down 4% on average across the region. Many mills are slowing production in an effort to align consumption with lower finished forest product demand and prices.  Multiple mill closures have been announced during the quarter-some temporary and others permanent.  An estimated 500 MMBF reduction in milling capacity has been announced in Oregon.3
  • Softwood stumpage prices were flat to slightly lower on average in the U.S. South , as wet weather buoyed log prices temporarily on accessible harvest tracts, while improvement in overall log demand remains elusive with the ongoing softness in residential construction and repair and remodeling expenditures in the United States with southern pine lumber prices sitting at or below production costs, mill curtailments and closures in the U.S. South are estimated  near 800 MMBF to date in 2024.4
  • New Zealand USD stumpage prices decreased 45% on average during the June-ending quarter after experiencing a 20% increase during the March-ending quarter.   New Zealand—China’s largest softwood log supplier—is navigating the strong downward shift in China’s demand for lumber and log imports.

3 Fastmarkets RISI as of August 15, 2024. 4 Fastmarkets RISI as of August 15 2024

Cash yield

  

Timberland cash yields held at historically low levels

A bar chart compares U.S. timberland cash yields by quarter from 2018 to Q2 2024.
  • Second-quarter U.S. timberland cash yields were largely unchanged, declining by 3 basis points (bps) from first quarter of 2024, to a value-weighted 1.4% across the United States.
  • Second-quarter cash yields have averaged 2.2% over the past five years, with 2024 second quarter cash yields 76bps below the second quarter historical average.
  • Operating revenue was driven lower in the United States during the second quarter by reduced harvest volumes across the United States, with the U.S. West experiencing greater declines than the U.S. South; while stumpage prices in both regions were lackluster during the quarter.  Lower operating revenue while timberland values ticked higher resulted in cash yields remaining at historically low levels.

Timberland value

  

Timberland values in publicly traded markets fell, private timberland values held

A line chart compares quarterly U.S. South private timberland values with publicly-traded timberland values between 2008 and Q2 2024.
  • Publicly traded timberland values in the U.S. South fell 19% during the second quarter, and moved below the value of private timberland values.
  • U.S. South private timberland (as reported by NCREIF) increased 1.4% on average in the second-quarter, a 7.6% increase over average second quarter values last year.

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