Pockets of resilience in China’s bond markets amid uncertainty

Russia's February 24 invasion of Ukraine led to volatility across global markets, driving a broad sell-off in risk assets. In this investment note, we outline our observations and explain why we believe China onshore bonds and the Chinese renminbi (CNY) show resilient fundamentals in the current environment.

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Update on China’s credit markets

In the China US-dollar-denominated (USD) credit market, benchmark investment-grade names saw spreads widen by 5 to 15 basis points (bps) while high-yield (HY) bonds sold off on weak macro sentiment and company-specific news. Some property issuances were also being marked lower by as much as 10 to 15 bps.1

Onshore China bonds and CNY show resilience

Meanwhile, onshore China bonds remained stable compared to China USD bonds and continued to show relatively resilient performance. Similarly, the CNY maintained its strength against the USD, hovering at around USD/CNY 6.33 despite emerging-market (EM) currencies being generally weaker against the USD.2 In contrast to other EM currencies, the CNY retained its strength amid market uncertainty due to relatively low inflation and positive real rates, which helped attract bond inflows. 

A more defensive approach amid uncertainty

Amid heightened market uncertainty, we believe in taking a more defensive approach to portfolios with exposure to China USD credit. We’ve also been less positive on higher beta (risk-sensitive) names and more positive on higher-quality credits in the lead up to the current crisis. We’ve been less positive on property names in the China USD credit space in recent weeks due to ongoing volatility in the sector.  

Overall, we believe in taking a more cautious approach to the property sector for the time being, as government support has been relatively measured thus far, and it will take more time before we see a more concrete recovery in the sector. Meanwhile, sentiment toward the real estate sector remains weak, and its performance is expected to be volatile in the near term.

Diversification opportunities exist within the China bond space. In our view, we believe exposures to onshore China government bonds (CGBs) and China policy bank bonds can provide investors with diversification and may help manage portfolio risks and potentially benefit from lower onshore rates in the current environment.  

Furthermore, we think China's onshore rates could head lower, as more monetary easing should support the Chinese economy while trade remains robust. In contrast to developed market (DM) central banks that are poised to hike rates, China maintains a dovish monetary policy while the economy is expected to rebound in the second half of 2022. As a result, we expect the China bond asset class to be well supported and backed by positive flows from global investors. 

The near-term outlook for China’s bond market

Overall, negative market sentiment and heightened volatility are likely to persist in the short term amid geopolitical tensions, particularly in the China USD credit space. Many investors remain on the sidelines, and investment flows are relatively muted. We will closely monitor any impact the crisis may have on China’s economy, including the potential for higher inflation as commodity prices are expected to rise.

Due to the relative strength of the Chinese economy and its robust trade position, we maintain our view that the China fixed-income asset class will continue to offer global investors diversification benefits and the potential to outperform other DM and EM bond segments this year. 

Conclusion

While heightened market volatility and weaker sentiment may continue in the short term, we believe that taking a more defensive approach to China USD credit and the property sector can help manage risks. We see resilient fundamentals in onshore China bonds and the CNY. We expect a rebound in China’s economy in the second half of 2022 and further monetary easing to attract inflows from global investors into the China bond market.

 

1 Manulife Investment Management data as of 24 February 2022. 2 Bloomberg, as of 24 February 2022.

Disclaimer

A widespread health crisis such as a global pandemic could cause substantial market volatility, exchange-trading suspensions and closures, and affect portfolio performance. For example, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in significant disruptions to global business activity. The impact of a health crisis and other epidemics and pandemics that may arise in the future, could affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the present time. A health crisis may exacerbate other pre-existing political, social and economic risks. Any such impact could adversely affect the portfolio’s performance, resulting in losses to your investment

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Paula Chan, CMT

Paula Chan, CMT, 

Senior Portfolio Manager, Asia ex-Japan Fixed Income

Manulife Investment Management

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