Rate volatility will persist: commercial real estate will continue to reset through 2024

With central banks worldwide pivoting toward lowering interest rates, it's likely that volatility will persist for various benchmark rates. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields (US10Y) have reflected this volatility over the last 18 months, spiking to above 5% in late October 2023 and gyrating throughout 2024. Given the US10Y’s role as a key risk-free benchmark for commercial real estate (CRE) investments, CRE price volatility will likely continue through 2024.

downtown office building next to a river flowing with water

Benchmark US10Y rates remain volatile

U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy over the last 40 years

A line chart shows U.S. 10-year Treasury rate since 1983, expressed as a percentage. A downward trajectory for the fund rate sharply reversed from Q4 2023.
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED) effective federal funds rate, as of August 2024.

The reasons that prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to shift monetary policy tend to be different across business cycles. The most recent two cycles cover both the Great Financial Crisis and the pandemic years. In both cases, the Fed hit new lows for the overnight borrowing rate to 0%­–0.25% in December 2008, where levels remained for seven years before the Fed began raising rates slowly in December 2015. Rates were raised to 2.25%–2.50% in December 2018 before the Fed chose to lower them once again back to 0%–0.25% at the onset of the COVID-19 lockdowns in March 2020.

There's wide variability in terms of when (and how quickly) the Fed will lower rates because every economic cycle is different. Fundamentally, the Fed has to constantly walk a fine balance given its dual mandate of price stability (keeping inflation close to its target of 2%) and full employment (keeping U.S. unemployment at or around 4%).

Consider the timing of how the Fed lowered rates after the peak of the last four hiking cycles.

History of the Fed’s rate cuts following hiking cycle peaks

A table compares hiking cycle peaks (February 1995, May 2000, June 2006, and December 2018) by months between the peak and first rate cut, quantity of rate cuts after six months, and quantity of rate cuts after 18 months.
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, as of August 2024. Bps refers to basis points.

The Fed’s last rate hike was in July 2023. Inflation appears to be moderating, although the Consumer Price Index and personal consumption expenditures (the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation) can sometimes give mixed signals. With the latest jobs report in July showing unemployment rising to 4.3%, the Fed is likely to seriously consider lowering rates over its next few meetings—contingent on how the economic situation evolves.

U.S. CRE assets will continue to reprice

The US10Y is used as the risk-free benchmark for U.S. CRE investments; therefore, it's likely that capitalization rates will continue to experience volatility throughout 2024. Since the Fed began raising rates at the beginning of 2022, capitalization rates have only risen by about 100 basis points (bps) as of the end of May, while the US10Y has risen by about 250bps.

U.S. CRE capitalization rates and the 10-year Treasury yield

A line chart compares the U.S. commercial real estate capitalization rates with the 10-year Treasury yield, which have tightened since approximately 2020.
Source: MSCI RCA, Federal Reserve (FRED), as of August 2024.

Given this environment, price discovery across various CRE asset classes will likely continue throughout 2024. While there isn’t a one-to-one relationship between the risk-free US10Y rate and CRE capitalization rates, Manulife IM believes that we may be approaching inflection points as uncertainty around the direction of monetary policy and the U.S. election continues through the year. If the Fed cuts rates later in the year as the market seems to anticipate, transaction activity may remain muted until November's election results are final. 

Volatility in capitalization rates represents an opportunity for credit investments given the possibility of more attractive entry points. Even if rates begin to come down and spreads begin to tighten, a flexible credit strategy and rigorous underwriting process will allow investors to benefit from more favorable valuations.

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Jessica Lee

Jessica Lee, 

CIO, Real Estate Credit

Manulife Investment Management

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Victor Calanog, Ph.D.

Victor Calanog, Ph.D., 

Global Co-Head of Research and Strategy

Manulife Investment Management

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