Five macroeconomic themes for 2025

A global economy in transition

2025 is shaping up to be a year of transition. With that in mind, we explore five key forces that we believe will drive the global economy and markets this year. Return to this page periodically for additional timely insight and resources to help guide you through 2025.

Chart shows the change in GDP growth estimates from September 2024 to January 2025 for the world at large and for various global markets (Asia ex-Japan, Eurozone, United States, Japan, Canada).
Chart shows key global central bank policy interest rates as of December 2024.
Chart shows the 10-year U.S. Treasury term premium from 1960 through 2025 (estimated), with a clear upward trend since 2020.
Chart shows U.S. tariffs and world exports as a % of U.S. GDP from 1960 through November 2024.
Chart shows that manageable inflation and weak growth should lead to further rates cuts in emerging markets, using a weighted average of 14 such markets.

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