Episode 103: 2025 at a glance—what’s in store for investors?

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Kevin Headland

Welcome back to Investments Unplugged. Once again, I'm your co-host, Kevin Headland, Chief Investment Strategist or co- Chief Investment Strategist at Manulife Investment Management. And with me is my colleague Macan Nia, co- Chief Investment Strategist at Manulife Investment Management as well. Happy New Year Macan. It's our first recording of 2025. So welcome to you.

Macan Nia

Happy to be here.

Kevin Headland

Yeah. How, like, how long can we say Happy New Year? We're on January 10th now. Does it stop, like, two weeks after the end of or the turn of the new year? When do we stop saying Happy New Year?

Macan Nia

What does Google say? I am still saying it feels good to say it right. But, I think by the end of next week I'll get tired of saying it. But happy New Year to you, Kev. Happy New Year to everyone listening in and to a prosperous 2025.

Kevin Headland

So curious. Slow fact, for you, Macan, next week actually is my 25th anniversary of being or living in Toronto. So we'll be officially marking the fact that I have now lived in Ontario longer than I lived in Quebec. So it's kind of a little milestone for me and my my personal life.

Macan Nia

Well, thanks for sharing.

Kevin Headland

Have you always here? I'm always.

Macan Nia

Always with a lot, too. So does that mean you're going to officially become a Leafs fan over a Habs fan? Is that how it works?

Kevin Headland

God, no. I'm actually wearing my Montreal Canadiens hat as we speak right now, so. No, I'm not going to.

Macan Nia

You know, I like how you're saying that with such pride. And then your job, you're not going to be a Leafs fan, that you'll still be a Habs fan.

Kevin Headland

That's hilarious. Macan coming into 2025. Let's start off with a little recap of 2024 was a great year. I think you have some, performance data to share with us.

Macan Nia

Yeah. So last year, Kev, it was, it was great year for equity investors generally across the board. When we look at last year. If I had to if we had to put one word on the theme for markets, I was obviously the main 1 or 1 of the main ones. Nasdaq led all major indices last year, close to a 30% return last year.

Macan Nia

Gold came in Smokin Kev. Up 27%. Also on the table of bitcoin S&P another strong year 23%. Despite the weakness that we saw in December, S&P still ended the year 23%. Lowly Canada one didn't think that they would have held their own, but Canada was up 18% rally by you know, spotifys of the world, material world, small caps, all that huff and puff about small caps and flows in and out.

Macan Nia

We saw multiple corrections within the space over the year. Small caps only ended the year up 10% of what we've been advocating. Us mid-caps came in at 15%. So that thesis of ours where, you know, for that sleeve within your asset allocation, we prefer us make caps over small caps for a whole host of reasons came to fruition last year.

Macan Nia

Europe. Remember cap. Oh valuations in Europe are great. And we've we've been here we've been doing this long enough that to say yeah they're always cheap for a reason. Europe came in at plus six and then China with all that stimulus at the end the rally I think markets rally. We saw a bull market only ended up 13%.

Macan Nia

So that was the equity side generally very good on the bond side. Mixed signals to be honest, have high yielded really well last year 8%. And there's a difference in performance. So credit did well. Governments didn't. So Canada is a great example where Canadian credit was up 7%. And then when you look at the basically the global Canadian AG goes up only for same type of relationship up in the US.

Macan Nia

And then global bonds came in at -2%. So the importance of active or active management within the bond space was very evident last year. And that will likely continue. And I think it's a good segue, Kevin, to the next section in terms of as we enter 2025, we did our base bull bear scenario on the last one, and we thought we'd do more of okay.

Macan Nia

As we enter 2025, investors have questions.

Kevin Headland

Yeah, they got lots of questions coming in. And that's key. And I think what we want to do is use kind of this this format, as you mentioned in the opening about, from Donald Rumsfeld speech. But, you know, knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns. And this is comes from a lot of, actually, psychological, cognitive response in terms of understanding oneself.

Kevin Headland

And there's a quadrant and knowing these things, and I think it really relates well to the markets because there are things we know, there are things we know we don't know, but there's also things we don't know that we don't know. And I think that's the key here is trying to look at those and understand them. And it helps prepare clients for portfolios.

Kevin Headland

And we've started the year already pretty choppy already. S&P 500 is down a year date as a recording. Nasdaq as well. There's there's some, some uncertainty going on early 2025. So let's start with our known knowns here, Macan and perhaps you want to start with yours.

Macan Nia

Yeah I think I know known cap for 2025. As we start the year it's going to be choppy. And I may be a cop out, but I feel that. So we're recording this on Jan 10th. We just got a US job number that was extremely, robust relative to expectations. Markets are selling off because rate cuts the whole story.

Macan Nia

But that's a top of mind for me. And I think other investors is yields rising. And at some point yields rising not only impacts the bond market, but it starts spooking the equity markets. And we're seeing that unfold. So I think that increase in rates as we start the year is going to lead to some choppiness. You get corrections of 10% pretty often when you go back to the 80s.

Macan Nia

The odds of a correction in any given year is actually close to 65%, so they happen quite frequently. Last year we didn't get one. The year before that in both the past couple years, kept we've been really close. Just like in Excel, if you extended the, you know, the decimal points, you would round up to ten. But we didn't get that exact ten.

Macan Nia

So that only increases the odds this year. And it's very rare to get multiple years without a correction. I went back to the 80s and there's then two periods where you had a string of years where you didn't get a correction. One was in the mid 90s. You had that stretch stretch from I think it was like 91 to 96.

Macan Nia

Markets just melt it up. Very little volatility would have been awesome to be strategists in that period. And then also the other one was in the mid 2000 after, you know so many years of corrections, they got three. We had three years of no correction. So we can always get a no no correction next year. But I think with as we enter you know the you know the tariff backdrop valuations are elevated.

Macan Nia

Inflation expectations are rising that it's likely going to lead to a choppy year doesn't take away from our expectations for the entire year of 2025. But it's going to be choppy.

Kevin Headland

I think it's important to realize that in any given year, the return profile for the calendar year is not linear. It's not straight up or straight down. You know, there's obviously some moving sideways. You were talking about corrections. I think the average correction in any given year since going back to 1980 for Sp500 is somewhere around 14% and change, so, you know, definitely wouldn't be surprised to see a correction as we haven't seen that, you know, typically we see 5% corrections at least once, sometimes twice in a given year, calendar year.

Kevin Headland

So it's important to understand that you're talking about today's data on, on January 10th. And, strong, robust, unemployment data. But then you actually had weaker, consumer confidence data. And a lot of it was around this idea of expectations for inflation coming in higher. And that leads to yields moving higher. Now it's important for our audience understand when we talk about yields moving higher here.

Kevin Headland

We talked about likely the US Treasury curve and mostly the longer end of the yield curve the 10 to 30 year curve. That doesn't mean we don't want to own bonds. It means we want to own bonds to the right areas and perhaps avoid some of the longer duration posture, have a shorter duration posture, be more focus on credit, good quality credit or the right credit.

Kevin Headland

Right. That's one note. One thing is that we're thinking about as well. And I think it kind of leads into my no known and that is credit fundamentals remain quite strong. Company corporate fundamentals remain strong. And this is why we haven't seen spreads widen. Why spreads remain very tight across the credit spectrum even to low quality high yield.

Kevin Headland

So when we're looking at that opportunity yes, we've got to be aware of the perhaps risk of some of the lower quality high yield. But it doesn't mean we want to avoid credit altogether. Comes back to active management doing our due diligence, doing our research, fixing a managers that, investing credit are doing the exact same things that equity managers, they're looking at the balance sheets.

Kevin Headland

They're looking at the fundamentals and they're looking at the price they want to enter. If there's a sell off by any reason, just like equities, if it's a headline selloff or misunderstanding the market's a dislocation. This is where our credit managers take advantage of opportunities. I think the point that it worked. So we don't just want to avoid fixed income.

Kevin Headland

Even though headlines are saying yields are going higher and might spook investors, that doesn't mean we don't want to own credit or on fixed income when on the right fixed income. And as you said, that the markets are choppy. I think this is where balanced approach makes sense is on our own both fixed income equities and and look at that downside protection.

Kevin Headland

Should we get any additional sell offs or if we have the corrections.

Macan Nia

Yeah. So let's go to our known unknowns. Maybe I'll get some. Maybe I'll do this one. Caps to start with. In terms of something we know that is unknown. These are going to be very confusing as we go along. But we read them. Keep reading. Do you think I made notes? But, I think one thing we know as we enter 2025 is rate cut expectations from the markets.

Macan Nia

So in the US today's the rate cut. Expectations for for this year is slightly above one. And in Canada it's around two. So we know that what we also know as investors is this is going to be completely in expectations. And we've seen this unfold many years. Yeah it unfolds every year. If you map interest rate expectations over what actually happens it is never accurate.

Macan Nia

So we know that this is going to be also wrong. So the unknown is is what is it going to be. Is it going to be one. Are we actually going to be raising or interest rates at some point this year, or will we be continuing to cut more than what markets expect? And from our view, we think the expectations will change along the way as they have every other year.

Macan Nia

But by point to point, we think what we if we're, you know, using a sports analogy or betting analogy, we're going to take the over on that one. So to your point tab, it's going to be choppy along the way. Inflation expectations came out in the US again Jan 10th. And inflation expectations from Americans highest since 2008 over to in the.

Macan Nia

Ask them basically what you expect inflation to be over your next 5 to 10 years. So it's the high. So this is something the Fed's going to be paying attention to. Well we also know is valuations are rich and they're above their historical averages. And I'm going to compare ten year averages. So the market cap S&P trading at 28 today.

Macan Nia

Historically it's 22 six multiple points higher. Equal weight even even. We keep talking about equal rates at 21 times his historical average 20 TSX is an interesting one. That surprised me. Cap trading at 19 times. Historical 15. When you go across the world, with the exception of E you look a year up their trading in line. We know valuations are rich, so when I look at it is okay.

Macan Nia

We know through next we know these things in terms of expectations. We know they're going to be wrong. What we also know generally is I feel that we have a bit more margin, like the odds of a very if we get one severe correction or lower, because ultimately we have zero interest rate cuts priced in, and we think that we're going to get more than that.

Macan Nia

And if we get that, that's going to be supportive for equities at some point this year. But right now it's working against it. But what we know is interesting expectations going to be wrong. And we think that they're probably likely going to be wrong and take the over on it.

Kevin Headland

I think the key there is we're very confident, I would say in the direction of rate cuts, you know, they're, they're flat to lower the the bar for rate hikes is extremely high. I would say, central banks, especially in North America, have no desire to raise rates and spook the market. As you said, inflation expectations are higher.

Kevin Headland

Looking at the universe in Michigan, 5 to 10 year inflation expectations, the 3.3%. So we're not talking like 7 or 8%. We're not there yet. You know, 2022 to 2023 type inflation numbers. These are, you know, higher than 2% target. It's all about relativity rates higher than the targets set by the Federal Reserve. Canada inflation remains very attractive.

Kevin Headland

Sub 2%. And which allowing the pay Canada to likely continue their rate cuts. They're expected to cut rates and on January 29th, whereas the Federal Reserve is not expected to cut rates there. But that's key is, is the direction at least we have. Right. When you talked about, the equity markets valuation, this is one of my known unknowns is market momentum.

Kevin Headland

What you know, momentum begets momentum. But both sides if we start getting that snowball effect rolling downhill, it all of a sudden sentiment shifts and we get negativity. Corrections can happen very quickly. And we want to make sure that we're protected against that. And perhaps getting back to that balanced approach of that uncertainty is, if the market changes at the same time, valuation and equity markets can essentially go to a very early in, in reality, you know, we hit, a recent high of, I think about 33 times trailing earnings back at the end of 2021.

Kevin Headland

So there's still room to move higher. There's no reason to fear just valuation itself. Valuation is a product of fundamentals. And making sure that that was like going to going to change things. And the you talked again about the, and the unknown about the, back to the interest rate policy. One of my known unknowns is economic data.

Kevin Headland

We know the economic data is coming out. You know, every period, the dates of the economic data that's announced, we don't know what the results are going to be. And that is key. And that's what's been moving industry policy that's been moving the yield curve. That's what moving markets. It's very data dependent. And I know that's an overused cliche, but it's so important when we're we talk about this.

Kevin Headland

Markets are priced for perfection. When we have this environment headlines can create that tropics and uncertainty. And if you're not expecting, the headline that comes through, that's when the markets get website and that's for sure.

Macan Nia

Yeah. And I think that's an interesting point you make on valuations in terms of momentum begets momentum. I forget which outside side it was in the US. I'll try to think of it on the call. But they wrote a report and they came out basically and said valuations high valuations can be supported and can be justified by high profit margins.

Macan Nia

And you have all time high profit margins in the US. So one thing we are paying very close attention to is profit margins in corporate America, because it's likely the same in, you know, rural America as well or Main Street. So valuations are high. They're not high across the board everywhere. There's still opportunities. But you have to be very selective and cautious.

Kevin Headland

And again I'll restate what I've been saying for for quite a while. The composition of the S&P 500 today is much different than it was 20, 30 years ago. So when we're looking at averages, they include very different periods. The top weights in the Sp500 are growth fee type companies growth. These companies tend to have higher trailing PE ratios.

Kevin Headland

That's just a normal part of the market. So let's not just look at averages, but look at perhaps the current markets. And don't get spooked, just because valuations seem elevated. One of my other, known unknowns is political uncertainty. In Canada, we know we're going to have an election at some point this year. Because it has to happen at least by October of 2025.

Kevin Headland

We don't know the results or the outcome of the election. We don't know, policies that would be put in place. We don't know the impact to our Canadian economy as a result of the policies. And perhaps, you know, the impact to our content stock market. You know, the stock market is not usually tied to the economy, but there are certain companies that are more linked to our canning economy.

Kevin Headland

So something to pay attention to as well. On the stock market, you want to see some?

Macan Nia

Yeah. And I think that's a really good point. I think when I look at the Canadian election, where it may impact investor is perhaps maybe even less so on the TSX cap. I'm looking at it from a CAD USD perspective. If there's uncertainty, you get continued weakness in the Canadian dollar versus USD. You see, like the US dollar strong.

Macan Nia

Canada obviously has underperformed relative to it, but Canada relative to other G7 currencies has done well versus the US dollar. But in this scenario, if the Canadian dollar continues to trend lower, when in fact, is that going to have a margins in Canada? And that's when again, going back to active management, it's important for stock pickers to go through their companies and say, okay, exposure, you know, just looking at the currency exposure.

Macan Nia

And that's also a question that advisors and other investors need to be asking themselves. We know the US equity weight in our portfolios have increased. We've got that tailwind. We may get that. But at some point, if the card reverses and you start trending up towards 0.74.75, which isn't beyond the realm of, realism, in the next year, truth is going to matter for returns.

Macan Nia

So also having a being aware anyways of what your US dollar dollar exposure is because we also know probably within your global sees you, although probably a lot of us currency as well.

Kevin Headland

Yeah, it's always a good point. Currency is always a question. We get, from advisors. And there's a lot of talk about that. A lot of it has to do that to your differential. Difference in the U.S, to your yield in the Canadian, to your yield, which is tends to be a good, bellwether for central bank policy.

Kevin Headland

And it seems like the bank is a little more, likely to cut rates further than the Federal Reserve, as it stands today, which could put some pressure on the two year yield, but a lot of that's priced in. The good news is the price soon we're at $0.69 and change today, CAD, USD. You know, there's perhaps a little more weakness, possible there.

Kevin Headland

But likely getting a tight trade and range for now is again, a current, difference in the Terial is priced in. And we talked about to yield and it seems like policy. The other political uncertainty, comes from the U.S, of course. President elect Donald Trump is going to be confirmed, in just over ten days or so.

Kevin Headland

And we're know that policies are going to be put in place. There's a lot of talk about his very first day. A lot of, you know, straight, changes, rates in the, the desk, the president, in the first hundred days or a lot of talk about that. But actually, there's more talk about the first two years.

Kevin Headland

You know, Mark and we talked about this before, the key, the first two years of a first term president, or the first term of the presidency is the next two years. In two years, there's going to be a, Senate and House of Representatives election. And right now the Republicans have a majority. So they're going to try to push through as much, legislation as possible.

Kevin Headland

What that legislation is, what those policies are, and the impact to the various, companies and economies, around the world will be keys to watch. I think one thing we've talked about is we believe, much of those policies are going to be focused on domestic growth, U.S domestic growth, which could be positive for Mid-caps as well, positive for companies that are more domestic focused.

Kevin Headland

So looking at that is something, very, very attractive. And it could result in a stronger U.S. dollar. As you said, the U.S. dollar strengthening has strengthened against most currencies, if not all currencies around the world. But Canada has been the best relative, currency performer. Perhaps that's, you know, the, the best house in a bad neighborhood, the cleanest dirty shirt, as you might say, for the for the currency.

Macan Nia

Okay, so let's go to the. And this one's always fun because who knows? But as the name suggests, the unknown unknowns going into 2025. And as the name suggests, it's who knows it. Take one of those eight balls and just ask the question and shake it and see what it tells you. But as the name suggests, it's a black swan event.

Macan Nia

And as the black swans are unknown unknowns or whatever Kevin, I or likely to say is going to be wrong. It's going to be completely something else. But let's at least try. I think for me, the black swan may be if yields continue to trend higher, not only will equity markets not like that. Could we possibly get another SVB like we did in March of 2023?

Macan Nia

So that was a fun SVB Back at Silicon Valley.

Kevin Headland

So go back yet. Just for those who don't know I know or the ticker.

Macan Nia

Yeah sorry. So Silicon Valley Bank long story short alongside holding treasuries with yields going up I think. So in March of 2023 yields were around 3.2% Kev. And I think over the.

Kevin Headland

Previous ten year yield, the ten year yield.

Macan Nia

Rate, the ten year yo was 3.2 and the year before was 1.7. So over that prior yield year you saw yields back up 150 basis points. They're holding high quality credit. The whole thing where okay you're high quality securities are assets are you know Mark the market they're not worth as much potentially puts you off side. They did.

Macan Nia

So I think with yields coming where we are today. So we're at 4.7 Kev today it's Jan 10th. There's these are not we're not that I'm a technical technical I can't even say a technician. But I think if you look at the ten year technicians will say it's a triple top potentially. So we've been at these levels two prior times in the past couple of years.

Macan Nia

We were here in April of last year, and then I think it was October of 2023 when we got that sell off. So investors will be paying very close attention to these levels, because if we break them the technicals or the technicians, where's the next level. So and does that potentially expose other, let's say financial institutions holding treasuries or whatever other institutions are holding treasuries.

Macan Nia

So black swan event potentially this likely not going to happen. But if I had to guess what it may be this year if yields continue to rise, it would be this.

Kevin Headland

Yeah. Essentially tied with the ten year yields back then. I'm just pulling up our chart here. You'll get on February 1st the ten year yield was at 3.41% 3.1 for six. And ended February. So started March at 4%. So you're up almost. It's about 60 basis points in a month. I said you led to that.

Kevin Headland

And here's where it's interesting is you're owning U.S. treasuries. That's, you know, very solid, you know, hedge against your business. But the whipsaw effect in the out quick data, the bond market move, obviously, led to the issues with, with Silicon Valley Bank. Definitely, you know, unknown a number apps. The nature of black swans is it comes out of nowhere.

Kevin Headland

Usually it's, you know, people are always like, what keeps you up at night? Like, not much, except for, you know, when you think about these events, you don't know. Covid was a prime example. You know, these pandemics, these type of things happen and the market reacts. And also when the pandemic, pandemic happened, markets are down 35%, S&P 500 is down 35%.

Kevin Headland

And what were the calls we were getting? What were the talk we were discussing internally? How bad does it get yet the S&P 500 and a 2020 or 2020 positive, for the year, during Covid. So again, even black swans, you think they come out no where they really impact. But actually it was a very short lived.

Kevin Headland

And that's the nature of, you know, really investing the markets is there are unknown unknowns. You can't plan for everything even if you think you're planning, and know, have a good plan, things happen and come out of nowhere. And I think that's again why we want to make sure that when we're talking to, financial advisors across Canada and we're talking to investors, we always look at things with a grain of salt.

Kevin Headland

When things are going great, you don't want to get too high. Momentum is great. Everything's going well. You still want to perhaps have an air of, caution, to getting a little bit over your skis, perhaps, or taking too much risk relative to your financial plan. We're in RSP season right now. Macan, is a lot of, financial advisors and investors planning, for their investments in RSP, reviewing their portfolios as a receive their December 20th 2324 excuse me statements.

Kevin Headland

And I know it's important to revise that, review that, and make sure that you, aren't really out of whack, shall we say, for a lack, for a technical term, there, with your financial plan, your portfolio allocation you've made to achieve or best, target your financial plan and your goals. And when markets move higher, they can really take you, out of your parameters you set.

Kevin Headland

And I think it's important to perhaps not get too caught up in, the robust market movements we've had all last two years and perhaps understand that, you know, looking back, your overall financial plan makes a lot of sense here. And a balanced approach, is is usually the right way to go?

Macan Nia

Yeah, I think you state your expectations. Like I mentioned, we've had two consecutive years that had been very good to us. Human nature, what human nature is that we extrapolate moving forward. And not to say this year won't be a good year, I think it will be. It's just going to be choppy. But if there's any certainty in life care, that is, there's going to be uncertainty.

Macan Nia

We've been saying that. So it's stayed the course. But I think the markets are going to provide those, with cash, even better opportunity. But you dollar you have the dollar cost average because you just don't know when it's going to happen. And as we're getting some weakness in the year, it's giving you giving investors a little bit better valuation or breathing room to get into the markets.

Kevin Headland

And this that I want to end here with. Also don't get overly cautious as well. Don't get too fearful. I pull up the status, one of my no knowns, and I realize I didn't mention it, but, remember the old adage that we talked about? We've talked about this before. Bull markets don't die of old age. They get killed off.

Kevin Headland

So interesting stats here. Bull markets average 556 months. Macan. We are halfway through it in 28. It started back in October of 2022 was the low. So even though we've had some great years, it's been pretty strong. It doesn't mean it's over yet. So again, don't, you know, don't get too high, but don't get too low either.

Kevin Headland

Don't overreact, to any perhaps, market movements, the downside or corrections or headline news. Stay the course that keep maintains a key. And I think that's all, well, be, likely quite happy, at the end of 2025, because we remain still very constructive on the overall investment landscape. For the full year of 2025, that was a lot of fun.

Kevin Headland

Mark, do you have a last, comment here?

Macan Nia

No, no last comments. Is, looking forward to 2025 and seeing, what unfolds. And we should be mindful of this podcast as you, Kevin December, when we record it and see actually how the year, you know, go through the year and what happened. So, it'll be a very interesting year if the start of the year is any indication.

Kevin Headland

I mean, we'll do a mid-year review, in June or July in the summer and say, hey, what's gone on? And, and have any of our know knowns or known unknowns, team through and maybe we could look at some of the unknown unknowns that we now know. So just getting real confusing now, but, anyways, macOS.

Kevin Headland

Great. Time, once again, everyone listening. Thanks so much for your your support. If you listen our podcast, please reviews, please rate us. Please share with your colleagues that may be interested in this podcast. We've been doing it for about five years now. It's, it's a lot of fun. We enjoy it, and we we appreciate your support and listening.

Kevin Headland

So for Investors Unplugged, Kevin, haven't.

Macan Nia

You.

Kevin Headland

Say have no idea. I it's always a good thing.

Macan Nia

It's always the weekend, Kev. Eyeball idea. Thanks for listening, everyone.

Kevin Headland

Take care. Yours.

Macan Nia

Bye.